Brace yourself for flash floods, lightning strikes, disease outbreaks and landslides/mudslides in parts of the country during the imminent long rains season, weathermen have warned.
Speaking when he released the March to May long rains season forecast at Sawela Lodge, Naivasha on February 29, Meteorological Services director, Dr David Gikungu said most parts of the country are expected to receive above average (enhanced) rainfall during the season.
Earlier, a United Nations OCHA official Gregory Akall warned that areas which will be afflicted by floods and flashfloods are likely to have a possibility of loss of lives and injuries, population displacements as well as destruction of shelters including schools, markets, buildings, roads, airstrips, bridges and railway line networks.
At the same time, a Health Ministry official, Dr Ayub Manya said due to the flooding, there is a possibility of occurrence of highland malaria in the affected areas as well as emerging and re-emerging diseases and increase in water-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid and diarrhoea among others.
However, all is not gloom and despondency. Several key sectors such as Agriculture and Livestock, Water and Energy are expected to experience positive impacts due to the heavy rainfall.
Speaking at the forum, a Ministry of Agriculture official said the country will experience surplus supply of agricultural produce resulting in decreased food commodity prices which will alleviate financial burdens on consumers.
Meanwhile, a Water Ministry official, Mr Carey Owiti noted that the heavy rainfall will result in increased ground and surface water in river channels and reservoirs amidst the emergence of seasonal rivers.
In the Energy sector, the enhanced rainfall will result in increased inflows into the hydropower reservoirs (Turkwel and Seven Forks) leading to more power generation from hydropower plants and less use of thermal power plants.
In the forecast, Dr Gikunga identified Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bungoma, Kakamega, Busia, Trans Nzoia, Vihiga, Laikipia West, Nakuru and Narok Counties as areas where enhanced rainfall is expected throughout the season.
“The expected rainfall is likely to be above the average amounts for the season and will continue throughout the season…
“The distribution is likely to be good in both time and space,”.
At the same time, Dr Gikungu said Turkana and Samburu are likely to experience enhanced rainfall, which however, will be poorly distributed in both time and space.
Dr Gikungu added: “Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Eastern parts of Laikipia Counties are likely to experience above-average rainfall whose distribution will be fair and good…
“The rains, which will continue in February, will be followed by a dry spell until the third to fourth week of March and are expected to cease from the fourth week of May to first week of June,”.
Meanwhile, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta Counties are likely to experience above average rainfall whose distribution is likely to be fair and good.
“Elsewhere, Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo and parts of Tana River Counties are likely to experience above average rainfall whose distribution is likely to be poor to fair in both time and space,”.
At the same time, the Coastal strip (Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale) Counties, Dr Gikungu added, are likely to experience near to above average rainfall whose distribution will likely be fair and good in both time and space.
Dr Gikungu described the March to May season as the major long rain’s rainfall season over most parts of Kenya and much of the equatorial Eastern Africa.
