By Mike Mwaniki
The early warning pilot project which is an initiative involving the Meteorological department, the Ministry of Health and the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), begun in 2014 and is yielding success in averting deaths and disease burden from malaria in the Western highlands of Kenya (Kakamega, Kisii and Nandi) areas.
Speaking to Health Business Magazine in an exclusive interview held in his office located in Nairobi’s Dagoretti Corner estate, Meteorological Services Director, Mr Peter Ambenje said in the malaria mapping project, his department makes daily model outputs based on current temperatures and rainfall trends in these areas.
“Due to climate change, temperatures in these areas have gone up, making mosquitoes to thrive in these areas… “When the temperatures rise and the areas also experience heavy rainfall (resulting in stagnant water), the risk of malaria outbreaks is enhanced. Through the daily model forecast, we are therefore, able to identify two months in advance when and where the killer disease will strike,” Mr Ambenje added.
The director said the daily models act as a “guide” in enabling the scientists and those in authority to closely monitor the existing trends in these areas and minimise the effects of the killer disease among the population.
Mr Ambenje described the daily early warning malaria models as “quite accurate” saying they had yielded good success since they were initiated in 2014 . “After the models are finalised by scientists in the department’s Bio-Meteorological sub-branch which deals with health issues, they are sent to the Ministry of Health, KEMRI and directors of Meteorological services based at the Counties for necessary action.
“These have resulted in averting severe episodes of malaria affecting the population living in these areas,” the director observed. Experts have identified the strain of plasmodium falciparum malaria—which occurs in the country—as the most prevalent and lethal malaria parasite affecting humans.
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), malaria is a preventable and curable disease. The WHO says vector control is the main way to prevent and reduce malaria transmission.
It identifies two forms of vector control as effective in a wide range of circumstances: Insecticide- treated mosquito nets (ITNs) and Indoor residual spraying (IRS). In 2015, for example, the WHO said there were 212 million new cases of malaria which occurred worldwide.
The WHO Africa Region accounted for most global cases of malaria (90 per cent) followed by south-East Asia Region (7 per cent) and Eastern Mediterranean Region (2 per cent). During the same period, there were an estimated 429,000 deaths worldwide with most of these deaths occurring in the African Region (92 per cent) followed by South-East Asia Region (6 per cent) and Eastern Mediterranean Region (2 per cent).
Children under five are particularly susceptible to malaria illness, infection and death. Other vulnerable groups include pregnant women and the elderly. “Despite malaria deaths among children under five falling by an estimated 35 per cent during this period, malaria remains a major killer of under-fives, claiming the life of one child every two minutes,” the WHO notes.
The WHO recommends diagnostic testing for all people with suspected malaria before treatment is administered. In Kenya, for example, a recent malaria outbreak which occurred in at least five counties and a refugee camp killed more than 30 people, among them four children. According to the Ministry of Health, about 733 cases had been reported in Marsabit, Lamu, Turkana, Baringo, Lower West Pokot and Kakuma refugee camp, where 438 people tested positive for the disease.
Another 295 people were treated and discharged in various county hospitals as the Government moved in to contain the situation by supplying medicine and test kits to the affected counties. With the number rising by the day, the Ministry of Health distributed about 4,000 test kits and 24,000 anti- malarial drugs to the affected counties.
A team of KEMRI experts were dispatched to test blood samples of patients after it emerged that some of the patients treated at Marsabit exhibited symptoms similar to those of cerebral malaria. During this period, more than 10 people died from malaria while 400 others were hospitalised in West Pokot and Baringo.
After the malaria outbreak in Marsabit County which claimed 23 lives in two weeks, Head of Kenya National Malaria Control Programme Waqo Dulacha said 50,000 mosquito treated nets were being supplied to those living in the affected areas in a bid to prevent further spread. Dr Dulacha assured that the State had adequate anti-malarial drugs and assured residents that there is no cause for alarm.
“We are working closely with KEMSA, Kenya Red Cross and UNICEF to combat this disease and prevent further deaths,” the medic noted. Speaking to Health Business Magazine, Mr Ambenje said if his department was approached by the Ministry of Health, it would also be possible to initiate early warning malaria models for other parts of the country modeled on the success of the current ongoing pilot project.
“Areas which record a minimum rainfall 50 mm are identified as epidemic threshold high risk and mitigation efforts are initiated to safeguard the populace against the killer disease,” Mr Ambenje noted.
