By Murega Njoroge
There is little chance that the divide over access to vaccines will ever be bridged, with expert models indicating that countries that will vaccinate less than 60 per cent of their population by mid-2022 will register GDP losses totalling US$2.3 trillion.
A report by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) finds that emerging countries, Kenya among them, will shoulder around two-thirds of these losses, further delaying the economic convergence with more developed countries.
About 11 million vaccines have been received in Kenya, according to data by the Ministry of Health. Of these, 4.2 million are first doses and only 2.6 million are second doses.
This translates to 57.2 per cent second dose uptake with only 9.6 per cent of the total adult population receiving the second dose. As a share of GDP, countries in subSaharan Africa will register the highest losses, totalling 3 per cent of the region’s forecast GDP in 2022-2025.
“COVAX, the WHO-sponsored initiative to ship vaccines to emerging economies, has failed to live up to expectations to deliver 1.9 billion vaccine doses to developed countries this year. It has only shipped only around 210 million doses, sufficient to inoculate just 15 per cent of the population of lowerincome economies,” EIU states in the report.
Rich countries have started widespread administration of third doses despite flattering promises to poor countries.
“Donations from poor countries have also covered only a fraction of requirements, and often, they are not delivered.” EIU says that shifting focus towards vaccinating children and administering booster doses in developed economies will compound the shortage of raw materials and production bottlenecks.
As of late August, around 60 per cent of higher-income countries had received at least one dose of coronavirus vaccine. By contrast, vaccination campaigns are progressing at a slower pace in lowerincome economies, with only 1 per cent of poorer populations receiving at least one dose of a vaccine.
EIU observes that vaccine inequity has been driven by the global shortage of raw materials and limited production capacities. In addition, EIU says few developing countries can afford vaccines, especially if they are already struggling to provide crucial services basic services such as clean water.
“Logistics also represent a barrier: shipping and storing vaccines requires adequate transport infrastructure and cold chains. May developing countries also lack the healthcare personnel to administer shots.” Vaccine inequity will reshape the global political and social landscape.
EIU’s projections show that timelines for economic recovery will be longer in poorer economies than in advanced ones, due to the expectation that social distancing measures will sometimes need to be re-imposed in countries where vaccination rates remain low.
This will also affect the tourism industry. “Unvaccinated people are often barred from entering vaccinated countries or are forced to quarantine for long periods upon arrival.” Conversely, travellers from vaccinated countries may prove reluctant to visit unvaccinated destinations in future. EIU notes that vaccine inequity is also fueling vaccine diplomacy. China’s vaccine diplomacy has been a success, becoming the world’s largest exporter of vaccines.
“This impressive feat comes with a warning for those countries that depend on Chinese vaccines: some of these shots appear to offer lower levels of protection than Western jabs. The Seychelles, which had vaccinated the majority of its population with China’s Sinopharm vaccine, had to re-impose a lockdown in June.”
Governments need to reconsider their long-term COVID strategies, EIU noting that the zero-Covid approach is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term.
“Such policies represent a future missed economic opportunity if the rest of the world re-opens, as they imply the imposition of stringent lockdowns as soon as any cases of coronavirus are detected.”
